Integrated Assessment Models and variable renewables
Moderator: Prof. Neven Duić
Integrated Assessment Models (IAM) play a crucial role in modeling how policies and technologies can contribute to mitigating climate change. However, they typically operate in yearly increments, which can pose challenges when accounting for critical technologies like variable renewables and flexibility solutions that require hourly resolution. While IAMs are making progress in addressing these issues, there is still much work to be done. The energy transition also necessitates the use of new materials, and though they may be available, potential bottlenecks could impede a smooth transition, which is essential for effective mitigation efforts. Incorporating these bottlenecks into IAMs presents a challenge. Mitigation and adaptation strategies will have significant impacts on the economy, but if IAMs treat economic growth as exogenous, it becomes challenging to predict its influence accurately. Both mitigation and adaptation are associated with costs, but they may also lead to significant investments that could potentially spur economic growth. On the other hand, there might be adverse effects leading to economic collapse. IAMs face these complex challenges in attempting to provide a comprehensive picture of the future, and further research and improvements are needed to address these issues adequately.
Dr. Felipe Feijoo
Pontificia Universidad Católica de Valparaíso, Valparaíso, Chile
Felipe Feijoo is an associate professor at the school of Industrial Engineering at the Pontificia Universidad Católica de Valparaíso, Chile. Dr. Feijoo has worked in world-renowned institutions including the Johns Hopkins University, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), University of Zagreb, and at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), one of the U.S. Department of Energy’s national laboratories. Dr. Feijoo is an expert in modeling and optimization of complex systems, particularly in energy system modeling using game theory, optimization, data driven techniques, and Integrated Assessment Models (IAM), such as the GCAM IAM, leading to the analysis of regional and global energy transition pathways. Dr Feijoo has led and participated in several national and international projects including the Fondecyt Regular grant (2022-present), Fondecyt Iniciación grant (2018-2021), INTERENERGY project (2020-2021), and the CONICYT MEC Project (2018-2020). Dr Feijoo also serves as board member of the Journal “Energy Sources, Part B: Economics, Planning, and Policy”.
Integrated Assessment Modeling in developing regions: The case of LAC
The utilization of Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) allow to comprehensively analyze and address the complex interplay between socio-economic development, environmental sustainability, and policy-making. Furthermore, the utilization of IAMs, such as the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), represents a pivotal strategy in developing regions for assessing the potential consequences of policy interventions pertaining to energy systems, climate impacts, land use changes, and socio-economic development pathways. For instance, within the Latin American (LA) context, IAMs have emerged as a powerful instrument for informed decision-making. In Chile, Uruguay, Colombia, and Argentina, GCAM has been extensively employed to develop and analyze decarbonization pathways towards net zero and net negative systems. Similarly, GCAM has also been used to assess the stranded asset implications of the Paris Agreement in the Latin America and the Caribbean context. This talk will present a summary of existing efforts and examples of the use of GCAM and other IAMs, focusing on the effects of different energy mixes, such as increased adoption of renewable sources like solar and wind, and the implications of carbon pricing mechanisms in Latin America.
Prof. Şiir KILKIŞ
The Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey (TÜBİTAK), Ankara, Turkey
Şiir Kılkış is alumna of KTH Royal Institute of Technology and Georgetown University, where she graduated magna cum laude with honors as the gold medalist in Science, Technology, and International Affairs. She served as a Lead Author in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report Working Group III on Mitigation of Climate Change with a focus on urban systems and sustainable development, engaging in cross-Working Group collaborations. For the Seventh Assessment Cycle, she is elected to serve in the IPCC Bureau as a Vice-Chair of WGIII. She is Senior Researcher and Science Advisor to the President at The Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey. She is double affiliated in the Earth System Science program of the Graduate School of Natural and Applied Sciences at Middle East Technical University as a Professor in energy systems engineering, climate change, and sustainable development. She takes place among the world’s top 2% scientists in the areas of energy, environmental science, and emerging/strategic technologies and is an International Scientific Committee member of the SDEWES Center. Her research work includes urban emissions and land use efficiency scenarios, the multi-dimensional SDEWES Index benchmarking 120 cities, novel net-zero district concepts, and the Rational Exergy Management Model to curb CO₂ emissions. She is an editorial board member of Energy Conversion and Management, The Journal of Sustainable Development of Energy, Water & Environment Systems, Smart Energy, and Energy Storage and Saving. She is a member of the Earth Commission on earth system boundaries, Steering Committee of Future Earth Urban Knowledge Action Network, Board of Governors of the Joint Research Centre, and the Mission Board for Climate-Neutral and Smart Cities.
Emerging advances and possible opportunities for the Seventh Assessment Cycle
This contribution will touch upon some of the emerging advances and possible opportunities for the Seventh Assessment Cycle of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in the scope of the three main points of the panel. First, there is a need for increasing the representation of variable renewable energy sources, flexibility options, and sector coupling. Within the evolving modelling capabilities of IAMs, soft-linking approaches are emerging to provide promising contributions. As complementary modelling capabilities, another opportunity is in developing modules that can increase comparisons of the co-benefits of modelled scenarios, such as new job opportunities and improvements in air quality. Such advances could support the process of comparing possible Sustainable Development Pathways that are gaining importance for informing ambitious climate mitigation action, including co-achievement for the Sustainable Development Goals and beyond. Second, on materials and resource efficiency, the number of scenarios submitted to the AR6 Scenario Explorer and Database that included relevant results could have been higher. Ongoing work continues to provide advances, including the role of material efficiency for renewable energy systems. Urban form is another aspect that can support renewable energy penetration, demand flexibility, as well as resource efficiency. In contrast, global integrated and energy models as well as national integrated models that consider urban form either as endogenous or exogenous with explicit or implicit representation are relatively limited, and mostly not represented. Ongoing efforts include using land use efficiency in a new module that could work together with existing IAMs. Third, in the scope of mitigation and adaptation linkages, the feedback and influence from impacts/risks to socio-economic changes is yet to be considered in the scenarios assessed. Among the options, process-based IAMs could include biophysical impacts and adaptation in more detail, including trade-offs and synergies with mitigation, yet more progress are necessary. The contribution will conclude with the relevance of these main points at various scales, including cities across regions.
Prof. Henrik Lund
Aalborg University, Aalborg, Denmark
Henrik Lund (born 2 July 1960) is a Danish engineer (M.Sc.Eng.1985) and Professor in Energy Planning at Aalborg University in Denmark. He holds a Ph.D. in Implementation of Sustainable Energy Systems (1990), and a Dr. Techn. in Choice Awareness and Renewable Energy Systems (2009).
Henrik Lund is a highly ranked world-leading researcher. He is listed among ISI Highly Cited researchers ranking him among the top 1% researchers in the world within engineering and on the Stanford list of top 2% scientists.
Henrik Lund has many years of management experience as head of department for approx. 200 staff persons (1996-2002), head of section for approx. 50 persons (2014 – 2016) and head of research group of 20-30 persons (2002 – present). During his time the Sustainable Energy Planning research group at Aalborg University has now grown to approx. 30 staff members including 4 professors.
Henrik Lund is Editor-in-Chief of Elsevier’s high-impact journal Energy with annual 10000+ submissions.
Henrik Lund is the author of more than 400 books and articles including the book ''Renewable Energy Systems”. He is the architect behind the advanced energy system analysis software EnergyPLAN, which is a freeware used worldwide that have form the basis of more than 200 peer reviewed journal papers around the world.
The modelling of Smart Renewable Energy Systems in the context of Fully Decarbonized Societies
Several tools and models have been developed and used for the design and analysis of future national energy systems. Many of these models focus on the integration of various renewable energy resources and the transformation of existing fossil-based energy systems into future sustainable energy systems. In recent years, political goals have been formulated mostly in the context of fully decarbonized societies – i.e. climate neutral societies. This presentation focus on what the recent focus on “climate neutral societies” means for the design of integrated assessment models with a focus on variable renewables. Moreover, the presentation includes the diversity of models and their implicit or explicit theoretical backgrounds. In particular, two archetypes are defined and compared. On the one hand, the prescriptive investment optimisation or optimal solutions approach. On the other hand, the analytical simulation or alternatives assessment approach. Awareness of the dissimilar theoretical assumption behind the models clarifies differences between the models, explains dissimilarities in results, and provides a theoretical and methodological foundation for understanding and interpreting results from the two archetypes.
Prof. Luis Javier Miguel González
University of Valladolid, Valladolid, Spain
"Luis Javier Miguel González is an associate professor in the Department of Systems Engineering and Automatic Control at the University of Valladolid since 1997. He has taught for more than twenty years in Control Engineering and Project Management. He currently teaches undergraduate studies in the fields of Systems Dynamics and Engineering Ethics, and postgraduate in Project Management and Scientific Cooperation for Development. His research lines were initially dedicated to automatic fault diagnosis and industrial predictive maintenance. In this field he has managed several research projects with public and private funding, mostly with the CARTIF technology center, where he held management responsibilities in research teams. In the context of this line of research he has directed 8 doctoral theses that have resulted in various publications in international journals and conferences, as well as three national patents. In 2004 he developed a postdoctoral stay at the University of Bergen (Norway). Since then, his priority research line is the application of systems dynamics to the analysis of energy resources and policies. In 2008 he contributed to the formation of the research group in Energy, Economics and Systems Dynamics. In this line of research he has tutored two doctoral theses, has participated in two projects of the National R & D & I Plan and two other European projects of the H2020 program. Since 2007, he combines his research activity with university management activities as director of the International Development Cooperation Area of the University of Valladolid. In this field he has promoted various teaching initiatives, among which the Interuniversity Master’s Degree in International Development Cooperation stands out, as well as research initiatives such as the Observatory for International Development Cooperation of the University of Valladolid."
Prof. Keywan Riahi
IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria
Keywan Riahi is the Director of the Energy, Climate and Environment (ECE) Program at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA). In addition, he lectures as a Visiting Professor of Energy Systems Analysis at the Graz University of Technology and he has joined the Payne Institute of the Colorado School of Mines as a Fellow. He also serves as an External Faculty Member at the Institute for Advanced Study (IAS) at the University of Amsterdam.
Dr. Riahi has ample experience in interdisciplinary research of climate change response options, working with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and providing policy advice at the international as well as national level. In 2020, he was ranked first by Reuters as the most influential climate scientist worldwide and in 2021, he was recognized by Clarivate as one of 23 researchers worldwide in the list of Highly Cited Researchers in three categories: Geosciences; Social Sciences; and Environment and Ecology. In 2021, UN Secretary General Guterres appointed him to the 10-Member Group to advise the UN on the Technology Facilitation Mechanism for the implementation of the Agenda 2030.
Energy communities and democratization of energy systems
Moderator: Prof. Goran Krajačić
Energy communities refer to organized groups of users who work together to generate, consume, and store clean energy using one or multiple local facilities. In these communities, participants join forces to collectively produce and utilize renewable energy resources while efficiently managing their distribution and consumption. These communities exhibit diverse compositions, encompassing cooperatives, non-profit associations, residential condominiums, commercial enterprises, and regional companies, among others. Despite their diverse structures, they share a common objective: to offer their members access to renewable energy sources at affordable rates. There are some predictions that there will be more than 264 million prosumers, and they will produce up to 45% of the renewable electricity in the entire EU in 2050. Moreover, energy communities are playing a crucial role in democratizing the energy systems. This is because the concept of sharing and owning energy production and storage facilities can lead to increased participation from various market players and generate greater interest among shareholders. The panel will discuss how community involvement in energy production and storage can promote a more inclusive and competitive energy markets, and what are the role of various tools, policies and strategies in process of democratization of energy systems through building of energy communities.
Dr. Dominik Franjo Dominković
Technical University of Denmark, Lyngby, Denmark
Dominik Franjo Dominkovic finished his PhD in September 2018, on the topic of Modelling energy supply of future smart cities, at the Technical University of Denmark (DTU Energy). During his master's study at the University of Zagreb, he studied at Chalmers University of Technology in Gothenburg, Sweden, and Aalborg University in Copenhagen, Denmark. As a part of his PhD, he was a guest researcher at Nanyang Technological University in Singapore and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory in Colorado, the USA.
Upon finishing his PhD, he moved to DTU Compute, where he is currently holding a Senior Reasercher position, working on data-driven modelling with application on energy systems. He is predominantly focused on demand response modelling, flexibility potential from the water sector, data centers, and industrial & citizen energy communities.
Since 2022 he is also a managing director at the startup AI Energy ApS, in which a team of people is commercializing some of the state-of-the-art methods in machine learning, advanced statistics, and optimization, including the automated planning of solar and battery systems (solarplanner.eu).
He has published numerous research papers, his H-index is 18, and he was cited more than 1300 times.
Energy communities as flexibility providers for future energy systems
Renewable energy communities can focus on different energy goals, such as maximizing the self-sufficiency of their customers, maximizing economic benefits, minimizing CO2 emissions, and helping the grid by providing flexibility. Due to the increasing amount of decentralized energy sources, heat pumps, and fast EV chargers, low-voltage distribution grids are facing more issues than ever before, such as phase unbalance, transformer overloading, voltage sags and swells, and others.
Using the linear optimization method, soft coupled with power flow analysis, we have investigated different distribution grids (city, village, suburban).
The results showed that the location of batteries impacts the grid stability and that depending on the strategy, energy communities can reduce the loading of the low-voltage grid by up to 58%. Furthermore, taking the grid stability objective into account can significantly increase the flexibility of the grid, having only a minor economic penalty for the community, less than 5%.
Dr. Gabriele Umberto Magni
Sapienza University, Rome, Italy
Ph.D. Energy and Environment.
Research Topic: "Development of innovative methodologies for design, management and optimization of collective self-consumption schemes and Energy Communities"
Governance, economic and technical patterns for Renewable Energy Communities
Renewable energy communities (RECs) have been clearly defined through the EU RED II Directive 2018/2001 on the promotion of the use of energy from renewable sources contained within the Clean Energy Package (CEP). This review moves from the state of the art of transposition processes in place in the different EU member states in order to highlight their main barriers. Subsequently, the paper analyses the three levels that characterise the structure of any Energy Community: the social and governance level, the energy and technology optimization aspects, and the business models supporting them. The analysis has been conducted by considering the models already developed in literature and the most interesting case studies where these models have been applied. Finally, conclusions are drawn about the possible interactions between the three levels mentioned above and national policy regulations while identifying gaps in the currently available literature.
Prof. Reinhard Haas
Vienna University of Technology, Vienna, Austria
Reinhard Haas is university professor of Energy Economics at Vienna University of Technology in Austria. He teaches Energy Economics, Regulation and Competition in Energy markets, and Energy Modeling
His current research focus is on (i) evaluation and modelling of dissemination strategies for renewables; (ii) modelling paths towards sustainable energy systems; (iii) liberalisation vs regulation of energy markets; (iv) energy policy strategies.
He works in these fields since more than 15 years and has published various papers in reviewed international journals. Moreover, he has coordinated and coordinates projects for Austrian institutions as well as the European Commission and the International Energy Agency.
PROSPECTS AND IMPEDIMENTS FOR ENERGY COMMUNITIES
Currently, more and more electricity customers are interested in participating in their own electricity supply. The major reason is, that Photovoltaic (PV) systems for households and other customers have surpassed grid parity in many countries and are economically feasible. The economics are better with large shares of own consumption. As the feed-in conditions are some times not very attractive, an alternative is to sell the excess generation to other customers, ideally as close as possible, best in the neighbourhood. This also avoids losses for transfers via the grid and may – at least at some points of time – lead to a relief of the grid.
However, from societies point-of-view the whole system, all customers and all generators as well as the grid operators have to be considered and treated as equal as possible. In detail the major findings up to now are: Firstly, it is a very important aspect is to provide a fair recovery approach for the costs of the grid. That is to say to distribute these cost in a justified way to all customers. The second issue is, that in Austria currently the by far largest part of own electricity generation in the energy communities comes from PV plants. Given this fact there might be relief in summer time but it has to be ensured by a reliable back-up system from the utilities, that also in winter time when PV is more scarce the (public) electricity supply is secured. Thirdly, as seen in 2022 the attractiveness will rise if the grid-feed-in prices are low and it will decrease with high prices.
Regarding conclusions it is to early today to make sound predictions. Yet, the lessons learned so far from Austria are promising for a remarkable contribution of the energy communities to the overall electricity system if the boundary conditions fit.
Dr. Melissa Jackson
Griffith University, Gold Coast, Australia
Melissa Jackson is a transdisciplinary researcher specialising in impacts and responses to climate change and sustainable futures. Her current postdoctoral research through Griffith’s Climate Action Beacon investigates the connections between transformative governance, collaboration and transdisciplinary methodologies to foster the transition to zero-carbon, climate resilient and just futures. Working across multiple sectors including energy, water, waste and food, Melissa’s research works at the nexus of climate science, theories of social change, systems theory, futures thinking and community and stakeholder engagement to bring new insights to intractable climate problems and enacting change in real-world situations.
Melissa’s doctoral thesis developed a multi-faceted, transdisciplinary methodology to assess impacts of climate in remote Indigenous communities in Australia with respect to water and water governance, developing a novel, locally and culturally appropriate framework for transformative community water governance. Employing collaborative and strengths-based approaches with remote Indigenous community partners the research trialled culturally and contextually appropriate solutions, including digital and in person water education and literacy and capacity building strategies to support climate resilient, sustainable essential services in remote and isolated communities.
Reflecting on community energy priorities in small, remote and developing country contexts
Democratising the energy system through community ownership or proactive involvement in energy supply and management is well progressed in developed country contexts. In small, isolated, and developing country contexts, however, millions of people still remain without electricity, and achieving SDG7 is a major driver for rural electrification and to help bring communities out of poverty. Further, these communities are some of the most vulnerable to climate change and already feeling climate impacts such as extreme weather events, storms, droughts, floods. At the intersection of the energy transition, meeting the SDG's and addressing the climate challenge, the realities for poor and marginalised communities in both Least Developed Countries and in some developed countries, opportunities to participate in energy decision making is challenged by a suite of barriers. In this panel talk, I reflect on a case study energy project example from the Pacific in which our research team conducted a 3 year monitoring and evaluation to illustrate challenges on the ground for project implementation and areas for improvement.
Promoting women in energy research
Moderator: Dr. Dana Niculescu
This panel focuses on women as underrepresented researchers in energy research and how to close the gender gap. A bibliometric report created by Elsevier in 2020 finds that in the period 2014-2018, in the EU28 plus other 7 countries around the globe, the percentage of women authors in the energy research area is around 18%, an increase of approximately 8% from the previous decade. This shows good progress in women’s participation in scientific authorship in this period. However, the gender disbalance is still there. According to the report, in the field of energy and in science overall, men are last and corresponding authors more often than women; moreover, in scientific research, men publish more than women, receive more grants, apply for more patents, and have a higher citation impact on papers as first authors than women first authors. The panel will include women editors of energy journals and will look at aspects such as: how to be a successful author as a woman researcher in energy, what are the challenges and opportunities for women researchers, how can women in energy become reviewers and journal editors?
Prof. Annamaria Buonomano
University of Naples Federico II, Napoli, Italy
Annamaria Buonomano obtained a B.Sc. and a M.Sc. in Engineering Management summa cum laude in 2004 and 2006 from University of Naples Federico II and a Ph.D. in Energetics from University of Palermo in 2010. She was visiting scholar at the Energy Performance of Buildings Group of the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (Berkeley, USA) in 2009, researcher at the Ben Gurion National Solar Energy Center of the Jacob Blaustein Institutes for Desert Research of University of Ben-Gurion (Sde Boqer, Israel) in 2011, and several times visiting scientist at Concordia University (Montreal, Canada), where she was appointed as Affiliate Assistant Professor in the Department of Building, Civil and Environmental Engineering in 2017. She is actively involved in research topics regarding building energy efficiency, with a particular focus on the development of performance simulation models and investigation of innovative building-plant solutions, based on integrated construction techniques, innovative HVAC systems and novel renewable energy technologies including solar heating and cooling systems, concentrating photovoltaic solar thermal systems, polygeneration, vehicle-to-grid, vehicle-to-buildig and related advances concepts (B2V2B or V2B2). She is also involved in collaborative research activities relative to the design of net zero energy buildings and communities through the integration of passive solar thermal systems in buildings and the use of electric vehicles to add flexibility to buildings.
Prof. Aoife Mary Foley
The University of Manchester, Manchester, United Kingdom
Professor Aoife Foley, is Chair in Net Zero Infrastructure at the University of Manchester and Managing Editor in Chief of Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews. She has a h-index of 37 (Scopus), 35 (Web of Science) and 42 (Google Scholar). She is a member of the Editorial Board of Elsevier’s Renewable Energy and the Editorial Panel of the Institution of Civil Engineers Proceedings in Transport. She is a Chartered Engineer and a Fellow of Engineers Ireland and a Fellow of the UK Higher Education Authority and a member of the IEEE Vehicular Technology Society (VTS) and Power Energy Society (PES). She has a BE(Hons) (1996) (Civil & Environmental Engineering) and a PhD (2011) (Energy Engineering) from University College Cork and an MSc (1999) (Transportation Engineering) from Trinity College Dublin.
Prof. Natasha Markovska
Research Center for Energy and Sustainable Development - Macedonian Academy of Sciences and Arts, Skopje, North Macedonia
Natasa Markovska holds DSc degree from the Faculty of Electrical Engineering, Skopje, with thesis on solar energy technologies. At present she is a Senior Researcher at the Research Centre for Energy and Sustainable Development of MANU and Professor of the subject Energy and Climate Change at two master programs and a doctoral program of Faculty of Electrical Engineering and Information Technologies, UKIM. Also, she serves as a National Focal Point of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and a Member of the International Scientific Committee of the Conferences on Sustainable Development of Energy Water and Environmental Systems (SDEWES Conferences). She has been participating in 111 international and national projects related to climate change mitigation, sustainable development, renewable energy sources and energy efficiency and energy strategic planning, for clients such as UNDP, USAID, WB, European Commission, GIZ, Macedonian and other governments. In these fields, Dr Markovska co-authored 191 published contributions (49 in high impact journals, Scopus h-index = 20). She serves as a Subject Editor – Elsevier’s Energy, (EGY), Section Chief Editor (Environment, Energy Economics, Policies) – Elsevier’s Energy Reports (EGYR) and Associate Editor – Elsevier’s Smart Energy (SEGY). She served as an editor of the Second National Communication under UNFCCC and as a guest editor of 22 special issues of international journals (incl. 11 of Energy and 8 of Renewable & Sustainable Energy Reviews) dedicated to SDEWES Conferences.
Dr. Dana Niculescu
Elsevier B.V., Amsterdam, Netherlands
Promoting women in energy research
This panel focuses on women as underrepresented researchers in energy research and how to close the gender gap.
A bibliometric report created by Elsevier in 2020 finds that in the period 2014-2018, in the EU28 plus other 7 countries around the globe, the percentage of women authors in the energy research area is around 18%, an increase of approximately 8% from the previous decade. This shows good progress in women’s participation in scientific authorship in this period. However, the gender disbalance is still there. According to the report, in the field of energy and in science overall, men are last and corresponding authors more often than women; moreover, in scientific research, men publish more than women, receive more grants, apply for more patents, and have a higher citation impact on papers as first authors than women first authors.
The panel will include women editors of energy journals and will look at aspects such as: how to be a successful author as a woman researcher in energy, what are the challenges and opportunities for women researchers, how can women in energy become reviewers and journal editors?